REC: Jobs Outlook - March 2023: Economic and investment confidence rebounds
Wednesday, 29 March 2023
Economic and investment confidence rebounds
Confidence
In December 2022-February 2023, business confidence in the UK economy continued its increase, rising by 13% to net: -51 from net: -64 in the previous rolling quarter. Employers in February (net: -31) were significantly more optimistic than in January (net: -57) and December (net: -65). Employers’ confidence in making hiring and investment decisions saw an even more substantial growth, increasing by 16% compared to the previous rolling quarter to net: -12 from net: -28. Similarly, this is the second consecutive increase in sentiment since December 2021-February 2022.
Permanent recruitment
Do you think the number of permanent workers in your organisation will increase or decrease in the next three months?
In December 2022-February 2023, employers’ intentions to hire permanent staff in the short-term increased by 3% to net: +13. Regionally, employers were more optimistic in London (net: +22), followed by the Midlands (net: +17) and the North of England (net: +13). All regions in the UK saw a rise in sentiment except for the South of England excluding London (net: +7), which saw a minor decrease. When it comes to business size, outlook for small-sized (0-49 employee) and large-sized (250+ employee) organisations increased by 5% and 3% to net: +10 and net: +15, respectively, while outlook for mid-sized (50-249 employee) organisations decreased slightly to net: +18, from net: +20. Forecast demand for both private and public sector employers also rose to net: +15 and net: +3 from net: +12 and net: 0.
Temporary recruitment
Do you think the number of agency workers in your organisation will increase or decrease in the next three months?
In the three months to February 2023, employers’ intentions to hire temporary agency workers in the short-term saw another upturn, rising by 4% to net: +12, comfortably above the series average since comparable records began in 2016. Hiring intentions remained particularly high in the devolved nations (net: +25), with sentiment in London (net: +21) increasing by 21% to net: +8 from net: -13. Whilst forecast demand for small-sized (0-49 employee) organisations rose by 17% to net: +17, outlook for large-sized (250+ employee) organisations decreased to net: +16. Forecast demand for the private sector rose to net: +13 from net: +6, but demand in the public sector dropped to net: +7 from net: +28 in the last rolling quarter.
Topical question
Employers suggested that reducing bureaucracy in skills and workforce planning processes (39% - quite beneficial, 20% - very beneficial) would be most valuable for their businesses in 2023.
Amongst other options, employers indicated that reforming the Apprenticeship Levy (28% - quite beneficial, 22% very beneficial), setting up partnerships between local education providers and businesses (28% - quite beneficial, 23% very beneficial), and providing businesses with information on Local Skills Improvement Plans (36% - quite beneficial, 21% very beneficial) would help their businesses.
On the other end of the spectrum, some employers (25%) expressed that reforming the Apprenticeship Levy would not be beneficial at all for their businesses in 2023
