REC: Jobs Outlook - May 2022
Wednesday, 24 May 2023
Employer confidence in hiring restores to positive territory for the first time since the beginning of 2022
Confidence
Across February-April 2023, business confidence in the UK economy continued to rally, improving to net: -43 from net: -51 in December 2022-February 2023. Sentiment was significantly stronger in February (net: -31), however, than in either March (net: -47) or April (net: -52).
Notably, the net balance of employers’ confidence in making hiring and investment decisions was restored to positive territory (net: +2) for the first time since January-March 2022, up from net: -12 in December 2022-February 2023. Employers’ confidence would have even been higher if not checked by more cautionary sentiment in March (net: -6).
Permanent recruitment
Do you think the number of permanent workers in your organisation will increase or decrease in the next three months?
In February-April 2023, employers’ short-term permanent hiring intentions improved by 5% to net: +18, but sentiment deteriorated from net: +24 in February to net: +13 in April. Regional variations were notable, ranging from net: +12 across the quarter in the South excluding London to net: +23 in the Midlands, with forecast demand in London staying above average at net: +20. By size of organisation, medium-sized (50-249 employee) enterprises (net: +22) were more optimistic compared to large-sized (250+ employee) and small-sized (0-49 employee) enterprises (net: +17). And by sector, sentiment was stronger in the private (net: +20) than the public sector (net: +12).
Temporary recruitment
Do you think the number of agency workers in your organisation will increase or decrease in the next three months?
Reflecting the general preference for agency staff, the net balance of short-term hiring intentions for temporary workers improved significantly between December-February and February-April 2023, rising from net: +12 to net: +18 — this was its highest level since December 2021-February 2022. Forecast demand increased in all regions in the UK bar the devolved nations (net: +7). Sentiment in the North of England skyrocketed to net: +31 from net: 0, while outlook for the South excluding London (net: +29) and the Midlands (net: +15) remained robust. By organisational size, small-sized (0-49 employee) enterprises (net: +26) were more optimistic about increasing headcount than medium-sized (50-249 employee) enterprises (net: +24) and large-sized (250+ employee) enterprises (net: +9). By sector, private sector employers’ sentiment rose by 11% to net: +24, while public sector employers’ sentiment decreased slightly to net: +5 from net: +7.
